When Will It Snow Again in Atlanta

Here'south what yous need to know about the coming winter.

ATLANTA — The 11Alive StormTrackers have been pouring over weather information the past few weeks to make certain you are prepared for the upcoming winter.

Let's just get a cursory overview of the final few winters, divers in this outlook as Dec through February:

• 4 of the five winters accept been warmer and had less snowfall than average or normal.
• The concluding five winters recorded above-average rainfall.

What you want to know: The forecast

This forecast for Atlanta focuses on meteorological winter - Dec through Feb - equally opposed to astronomical wintertime which runs from December. 22 to March 20 this season.

Temperatures

In the last 5 winters, we have recorded warmer than average or normal temperatures. That looks equally if it will continue this winter as our predicted atmospheric setup has favored warmer temperatures. Keep in mind that this is an average over 3 months. Wild swings of well-below and to a higher place-average or normal temperatures appear likely this season.

When you milkshake down all 3 months of lows and highs, the warmer temperatures look to outdo the colder temperatures.

Snowfall

After seeing above-average temperatures predicted, this one may seem a little counterintuitive. Although we may end upwardly warmer with common cold shots of air possible - like the polar vortex - one stiff cold front could driblet our normal or average of 2.1 inches in 1 laissez passer. Historical information, which is outlined beneath, suggests this is a good bet.

Rainfall

The last five years accept been wetter than average or normal and that looks every bit if it will continue this season. It doesn't look like nosotros will be catching up with 2018, which was the second wettest year on record in Atlanta, but our additional rainfall looks like it will be enough to get rid of near of the drought.

Ice

Like to our snow forecast, we are expecting some icy events that would impact travel, especially in northeast Georgia. Common cold, shallow arctic air masses would allow for freezing pelting to develop or a common cold air wedge in the mountains. These icy events would be favored in northeast Georgia but could brand it all the manner over to the I-75 corridor.

Forecast method

Dozens of variables are used to make a long-range forecast. 1, in particular, that's easy to understand is El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This method looks at which stage we will be in during winter: El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral.

This year we are forecast to remain neutral.

This pattern ordinarily gives us warmer than boilerplate or normal temperatures and wetter weather condition.

This blueprint can also be supportive of large snow or ice events. With the southern jet stream bringing in moisture, that northerly jet stream could bring downwards a strong arctic front changing all that moisture to frozen precipitation.

Temperatures

Looking at the last 30 years of data and separating the neutral year winters, we tin can digest these numbers downwardly to probabilities - or the chance something can happen based on how often it occurred.

This one is pretty cutting-and-dry: 70 percentage of the time over the last 30 years, temperatures ended upwards warmer than average when calculating all 3 months of loftier and low temperatures. That's not to say we could not have colder-than-normal temperatures, but it looks unlikely.

Snowfall

It starts to get a little tricky hither. Based on the terminal xxx years, information technology has snowed a majority of the time no matter conditions design. Our neutral pattern gives us a 70 percentage chance of seeing any measurable amount.

Let's narrow it down to just years when nosotros got our average or normal in Atlanta of 2.ane inches:

The percentages go downwardly considerably for La Nina and El Nino but remain pretty loftier in our forecast neutral phase.

This data, along with a good chance of cruel cold shots, leads us to believe nosotros could achieve our average snowfall.

The all-time chance of whatever snow looks to exist in January and Feb.

Similar years

Another tool for long-range forecasts is looking for similarities in winters that had the aforementioned neutral design.

We identified the wintertime of 1992 to 1993 equally one flavor to pair with this yr.

Both winters have transitioned from an El Nino to neutral amongst other similar atmospheric condition characteristics.

Nosotros tin accept the things that occurred during that winter and reasonably infer that at that place is a good gamble those things may happen again.

Remember March 1993?

The "Storm of the Century" was in March 1993. Feet of snowfall vicious in north Georiga - and Atlanta recorded 4 inches. That scenario is possible again this winter or jump.

Of import: Know your winter weather alerts

The National Weather Service (NWS) will issue winter conditions products if they believe chancy or impactful weather may occur.

As it does for severe jump weather, the NWS will issue a watch first. In winter they are issued 12 to 48 hours before the onset of atmospheric precipitation. As we get closer to the event, a winter weather advisory or warning volition be issued.

It's of import to note that going from a watch to an informational is actually an upgrade in confidence that impactful or "inconvenient" winter weather condition volition occur.

A warning volition be issued when forecasters are confident that 2 or more than inches of snow, half-an-inch or more than of sleet, or a quarter-inch or more of freezing rain will occur.

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Source: https://www.wltx.com/article/weather/stormtracker/atlanta-snow-winter-forecasts/85-0180803c-97a8-4e02-816c-52bf0cd48549

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